It’s that time of year again. The time when every sell-side analyst, financial pundit and many an adviser is obligated to provide their thoughts on what the coming year will bring, often together with some targets for the major market indices and/or strategy recommendations.
One of the pleasures about being on the buy-side is not sensing any obligation to provide projections (make guesses) on what the next 12 months will bring. I am however happy to share what will be a key feature of our portfolio management strategy in the coming 12 months.
We closed out October with another brutal little pullback. Then as the US election unfolded we got a brutal little rally – despite the result being unclear. And then the news that a Covid vaccine is just around the corner…
All-time highs. Against an economic backdrop which is, well… less than all-time highs. But as we already know, the stock market isn’t the economy and the economy isn’t the stock market.
Is this the beginning of a Bull Market or the top of Market?
The economy has been a hot topic over the past 6 months. We're repeatedly being asked for our take on the outlook.
Below, we will examine the economy from a theoretical perspective – how we measure it and what drives it. Then, we can apply these concepts to what’s going on at the moment to hopefully get a sense of the economic outlook.
It's a large and important question right now. How will we emerge from the year of COVID?
Financials markets are perfect for “influencers” – always have been. Investing is something almost everyone in the developed world engages in (whether directly or passively). The industry is therefore huge. There are fortunes to be made (and lost) and, most importantly, nobody knows what tomorrow will bring to financial markets. Its binary – up or down. And therefore anyone can be right and everyone’s opinion can be valid.
To a large extent, influencing is nothing more than a good old “pump-and-dump” scheme. Buy some shares... promote the company as the next amazing thing and then (hopefully) sell into the strength you’ve created. So, should influencers in the market be illegal?