Sinking or Swimming? It's hard to tell sometimes. When you scan the internet at present, you quickly realise something… The commentators with a positive market view almost exclusively have a “technical” approach to the market (“chart goes up and to the right… buy, buy, buy”) whilst those that approach investing from a fundamental perspective (myself included) are very cautious. So after the best month in 33 years for the Dow what happens next? Is it Sell in May and Go Away, or are we going to see new market highs as glimmers of hope emerge from the Pandemic?
What a month! The US S&P500 – as at the close Friday March 27 had gone from 3400 to 2200 in a handful of sessions – the fastest crash like this in its history (faster than during the global financial crisis, the 1987 crash and the 1929 pre-great depression crash). The week that ended on the 27th was declared by the Wall St Journal as the fastest bull market in history – up 21% in just four days. Of course, almost all that any of us care about now is what happens next.
This Coronavirus is getting real. Seems it’s beginning to take over the world without any solution in sight. Financial markets sure are rattled, with some of the worst weekly performance since the GFC. How big will the impact be? Will we see "pent up demand" or "investor panic"? Will this change the course of the US election? Will Australia have a recession?
India is a fascinating place. It’s the worlds largest democracy. India's share market is near its all-time high, but growth is declining and bad debts are mounting. Should they kick-start their economy with credit? Will China hand the mantle to India over the next decade? What needs to happen to make India the great investment opportunity we are looking for?